Autumn Fertiliser Update 2023

Fertiliser prices are influenced by the gas price and since Russia invaded Ukraine the UK and Europe have become more reliant on imported gas placing pressure on supply and prices. Current UK natural gas price is sitting at 124p/therm, a significant drop from the peak of 729p/therm in August 2022.  Imported AN price shows a similar trend peaking at £870 per tonne in October 2022 compared with today’s price of £360/per tonne. The threat of strike action in Australia and the impact this would have on global gas supply saw an increase in the gas price in September, however this has levelled off after postponement of strike action and recent warmer weather in Europe.  Consequently, gas stores in Europe in September were sitting at 96% capacity an increase on the ten-year seasonal average of 87% capacity for the same time of year.  Foreign exchange is also having an impact on imports with Sterling weakened against the US Dollar.  Whilst  gas and fertiliser markets look more stable than a year ago these are still incredibly volatile markets particularly given the impact of the Russia -Ukraine war. This  potential for continued volatility is something that must be kept in mind when deciding timings of fertiliser purchase.  

Fertiliser usage has lowered over the last 12 months; however, it is hard to conclude whether this is just part of a long-term trend or a reaction to the significant increase in prices over the last 18 months.  The table below shows the difference in use between 2011/12 and 2012/22 for the key nutrients.  The increased use of sulphur has been driven by the recognition that sulphur applications are required to  improve efficiency of Nitrogen uptake as sulphur depositions have reduced from lower industrial emissions. 

The table below shows the difference in use in kilograms per hectare of key nutrients between 2012 and 2022 as reported by AIC fertiliser statistics report 2023.