Business and Policy December 2025 – Sheep

Australian Sheep Producers Intention Survey 

Meat and Livestock Australia and Australian Wool Innovation Ltd have recently published the results from the sheep producer intentions survey.  This survey aids lamb production forecasts for Australia, allowing knowledge of any short-term supply over the coming year.  The standout figures in the report are that 52% of Australian producers are likely to increase lamb numbers in 2026.  The majority of which, are planning on improving production through raising lambing rates; with a third of producers looking to increase production by retaining more ewes in the flock. 

In last year’s survey, while 39% of producers indicated that they would reduce the size of their flocks; this has now been revised down to 28%.  Of these, 40% are planning to downsize, while 26% are looking to retire in the next year.  The full report is available on the Meat and Livestock Australia website.

As we go into 2026, which will be year four of the Australian – UK trade deal, the tariff free quota shall rise from 36,111 tonnes of sheep meat to 41,667t, a rise of 5,556 tonnes.  While over the last year, quota ceilings have not been reached, Australian imports to the UK have risen considerably, with data for January – September 2025 showing 19,200t have been imported by the UK from Australia, a 39% rise from 13,800t in January – September 2024.   

The Australian price has noticeably risen over past year, from €5.19/kg DW in November 2024 to €6.47/kg DW for the week ending 15th of November 2025, a rise of 24%.  In the same period, the New Zealand price has risen 19%, while the GB has only risen 0.5%. 

International Trade  

Looking at import data for Quarter 3 (January – September 2025), volumes have risen on the year by 7% up to 65,100 tonnes; with the value rising by 31% to £365 million.  New Zealand remains our largest supplier of lamb with 37,900 tonnes being imported into the UK.  However, this is back 1% on the same period last year. 

AHDB have shown that exports from the UK have risen 15% on the year to 68,300 tonnes, with an uplift in value of 16% to £493 million.  It is well documented that the EU have a tight supply of lamb, and a high price.  This is reflected in the increase in exports to key countries such as France, who we have so far, exported 20% more on the year, rising to 37,400 tonnes. 

The latest figures  for the week ending 15/11/25 show Spanish and French lamb trading at €10.38/kg DW and €9.02/kg DW respectively, compared to GB lamb at €7.85/kg DW. 

Christmas 

Across the country, the Christmas market lamb slaughter is now underway.  Consumer trends are showing a growing number of people are choosing to celebrate family gatherings and occasions at home, rather than eating out.  With families often choosing to have more than one meat as a centrepiece on the Christmas table, with a focus on quality and British-sourced. 

The Tesco Christmas Trend Report for 2025 indicates that 73% of people will host a gathering over the festive period, with almost half, 49% being family meals, 30% being sit down meals and 28% being drinks and nibbles.  A huge 80% of the people surveyed are looking to use frozen foods to reduce the stress around cooking a large meal for their gathering over Christmas.  In this dataset, 52% will be looking at purchasing a traditional Christmas turkey.  However, 17% of the 25-34 year-old age group are looking to cook less traditional foods such as pizzas, pasta and curries. 

Last year, AHDB showed that lamb sales decreased over Christmas by 8.2% on the year, while beef increased by 12.6%.  Looking at retail prices for the end of November 2024 v 2025 for the two meats against current prices, we may see greater competition for the lamb sales, with the price differential down to 7 pence per kg in November 2025 compared to a price differential of £2.65 price per kg in November 2024. 

 

	30th November 2024	22nd November 2025
Whole Lamb Leg	£14.83/kg	£15.56/kg
Beef Roasting Joint	£12.18/kg	£15.49/kg

 

Kirsten Williams, kirsten.williams@sac.co.uk

 

	Week ending	GB deadweight (p/kg)				Scottish auction (p/kg)				Ewes (£/hd)
		16.5 – 21.5kg								Scottish
		R3L	Change on week	Diff over R2	Diff over R3H	Med.	Change on week	Diff over stan.	Diff over heavy	All
	1-Nov-25	664.7	0.3	-3	-2.1	306.2	10	14.2	12.1	103.19
	8-Nov-25	676.9	12.2	-4.4	-3.5	316.1	9.9	12.7	12.2	114.68
	15-Nov-25	693	16.1	-6.5	-3.3	312.5	-3.6	11.3	10.1	114.07
	22-Nov-25	694.9	1.9	-5.6	-4.4	322.3	9.8	6.3	11.8	119.36