European Potato Yield Predictions
30 October 2024Earlier in the summer the European Commission’s Monitoring of Agricultural Resources (MARS) June bulletin painted a potentially gloomy picture of reduced potato yields throughout Europe. However, in the September issue, the overall EU picture looks to be largely in line with the five-year average, although with a predicted 3% less tonnes per hectare than in 2023.
These top line figures paint only a partial picture: following the hottest summer on record in parts of the EU, there has been below-average river levels, regionally dry soils, and record-high sea-surface temperatures in the Mediterranean and the Black Sea in August (Figure 1). A low-pressure air mass moved slowly from the Mediterranean into central Europe.
Excess heat and moisture developed into storm conditions due to a blocked weather pattern. Heavy downpours and strong winds caused severe regional flooding in southern Poland, south-eastern Germany, Austria, Czechia, western Slovakia and parts of Hungary and Romania between the 11th and 16th of September.
This has resulted in harvesting delays, crop submergence, damage to seedbeds and recently sown winter crops, as well as to long-lasting (or permanent) damage by soil erosion on sloping land (JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 32 No 9). No doubt reducing the amount of marketable crop (Figure 2). Although largely unaffected by the heaviest rains, two large potato growing nations - Belgium and Netherlands are both predicted to yield less than average this season (Figure 2).
The Netherlands for example, typically produce 7.3 million tonnes of potatoes annually. However, MARS statistics predict an 8% reduction, this would reduce total production by over half a million tonnes. Perhaps leading to advantages for Scottish seed exports to North Africa, for example. Quality will be mixed too, with other parts of Europe facing wet spring and dry summer conditions.


In Scotland, local rainfall values varied but it appears there was between 25-100 mm of rain in most potato growing areas in August, which is slightly below average. September was a frustrating month for combining due to damp air and somewhat drizzly conditions, which also had a knock-on effect to potato harvests. However, some seed producers were able to start lifting early September. Ground conditions were good for the first half of the month providing enough moisture to allow soil to travel up harvester webs, cushioning potatoes, limiting tuber damage & bruising. Week commencing 16th September saw an unseasonal mini heatwave! Temperatures raised to a sizzling 24 °C at its peak. Elevated temperatures and dry soils make potato crops are more susceptible to damage, allowing entry to commonly occurring pathogens in soils such as Pythium ultimum (watery wound rot) and Phytophthora erythroseptica (pink rot). There is also an increased risk of bacterial soft rots (Figure 3). In the end, most potato growing regions, notwithstanding Morayshire, received half the average monthly rainfall for September. There has been some precipitation for the early part of October, which has helped dampen soils slightly.
Tonnage availability in the EU will influence supply and demand in the UK. Here’s hoping we can make up the shortfall! However, it is disappointing that we still can’t export seed into the EU, especially when there may be increased demand from certain countries. Nevertheless, SASA are still working hard to re-open the European market in the near future.


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