2024 Harvest & Grain Quality Update
26 September 2024
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The wet weather experienced in the UK from autumn 2023 to spring 2024 has significantly impacted this year’s cereal crops. Although autumn started off well, heavy rainfall began in early October and persisted for the next six months. During winter 2023 and spring 2024, most of the UK saw well-above-average rainfall and reduced sunshine compared to the 30-year average (1991-2020).
As a result, DEFRA reported an 11% reduction in winter wheat area (the smallest since 2020) and a 17% decrease in winter barley area across England, with a corresponding 23% increase in spring barley planting. The oats area increased by 11%. In Scotland, the trend was deemed similar but less marked: wheat down by 8%, winter barley down by 4%, spring barley up by 4% and oats up by 16%.
Winter Barley
In southern parts of the UK, winter barley harvest results mirrored that of France, with low sunlight during key flowering periods leading to disappointing yields in many areas. The combination of low yields reduced specific weights, and high screenings in some cases led to a reduction of up to 20% in contracted winter barley tonnages. Low nitrogen levels, possibly due to heavy winter rainfall depleting soil nitrogen reserves, were observed across the board.
A similar situation unfolded in Scotland and northern England, with significantly lower nitrogen levels than in 2023 and, in some cases, the lowest on record. Yields were disappointing, averaging around 6.1t/ha, 15-20% below the five-year average.
AHDB report winter barley yields, on average down 11 per cent on the 5-year average across the UK.
The quality of winter malting barley has been good, though some crops showed lower bushel weights and lower screenings. Merchants report that the crop remains usable for the domestic market.
Specific weights ranged from 59 to 72 kg/hl, with an average of 64 kg/hl. Screening retentions averaged 88%, ranging from 85% to 98%.
Grain nitrogen in winter malting barley averaged 1.5%, which is low for this crop and the presumption will be that in feed barleys crude protein levels will be sub -average. Germination rates have been strong, with nearly all crops above 98%.
Winter Oats
Progress in Scotland has been slow, lagging behind recent years' pace. Oat yields have varied across the UK and between winter and spring oats. On average, yields are down 7%, at 5.07t/ha, though these figures are not adjusted for variety. Winter oat quality has been good, and most samples meet milling specifications. Preliminary results for spring oats are also generally positive, with bold, well-coloured samples and an average specific weight of 53 kg/hl.
Spring Barley
The outlook for spring barley, especially in England, has been more favourable. Unlike France, the UK had a sunny end to the spring, with ideal conditions for spring barley crops in the south. Harvesting conditions have been excellent, resulting in above-average yields and high-quality crops. In Scotland and northern England, later-than-usual planting occurred due to weather issues, but the combination of sunshine and moist soil resulted in near-perfect crop establishment.
By mid-September, 50% of Scotland’s Spring barley harvest was complete. Quality has been similar to southern crops, with low nitrogen levels averaging below 1.60 and good screenings. Nitrogen content across the UK crop has averaged 1.45%, with most samples between 1.2% and 1.6%. While high nitrogen samples are rare, this could pose challenges for exports with a minimum nitrogen specification.
UK spring barley yields are estimated to be 4% below the five-year average, currently at 5.67t/ha. However, it's still too early to gauge Scotland’s yield average. What is evident however is that the premium for malting barley over feed barley is significantly reduced from the same period last year, partly due to a larger acreage, good harvest quality, and expectations of higher availability and cheaper imported maize from the USA.
Oilseed Rape
Average yields of OSR across the UK are estimated at 2.93t/ha, down 9% on 2023’s performance. Of all EU27 (plus the UK) Member States, the UK has been the single worst performing country in terms of average yields; average OSR yields in the UK have dropped 10%, (0.36t/ha) during the most recent 5-year period when compared to the previous 5-year average. The UK will, this year, import more OSR than it produces for the first time ever, a far cry from when the UK was self-sufficient in OSR and had 40% security on edible oils; today that figure is just 20% of domestic edible oil consumption. This move from net exporter to importer is deemed likely to cost £1billion to the UK economy. Scotland harvested area fell 6%, much lower than the 27% decline in area across England.
Current Prices
Average spot prices in mid-September (per tonne ex-farm): feed wheat £190; malting barley £220; feed barley £163; oilseed rape £370; feed beans £220.
Mark Bowsher-Gibbs, SAC Consulting
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