Business and Policy April 2026 – Sheep

Prices soar into the Spring 

The lift in old season lamb price in March continued its upward trajectory from February exceeding £8/kg by the end of the month. This was an increase of almost 99p/kg compared to this time last year. This sharp rise has predominantly been driven by a tighter GB supply from a reduced 2025 lamb crop and demand remaining strong throughout the season.  With retail data showing a rise of 6.2% in lamb spend and a volume increase of 1.5% despite a 4.6% rise in average cost to the consumer (AHDB, 2026), export volumes have also continued to increase showing demand to be strong both domestically and from the EU.  

Domestic demand has also been supported by Ramadan running over February and March finishing with Eid Al-Fitr on the 19th/20th March closely followed by an early Easter this year on the 5th of April. March also saw an increase again on the price of cull ewes with the Scottish cull ewe price rising to £131.62/head (w/c 21st of March).  

Deadweight Price Changes 

The changes to deadweight reporting came into effect in March. Meaning it is now compulsory that all abattoirs in Great Britain report deadweight sheep prices and classify carcasses to a set standard with all lambs reported requiring to be less than 12 months old, which means no permanent incisor teeth erupted. From the 1st of January each year, lambs born between January and September the previous year will be reported as ‘old season’ lamb.   

All price information is now for prime sheep between 12-21.5kg SQQ weight and dressed to a UK standard with kidney knobs, channel fat and diaphragm skirt removed.  For this reason, we have seen a sharp rise in reported numbers culled.  However, this also reflects the greater number of slaughterhouses now reporting data. 

Looking Ahead for the Domestic Market 

The Muslim population remain a key market to look after for the UK sheep industry with lamb and mutton a stable part of their diet, particularly around key festivals.  This was reiterated last month at the QMS Conference focusing on ‘Future Thinking on Red Meat’.  

AHDB studies in 2024 found that Muslims account to 6.5% of the UK population yet consume 30% of all sheep meat produced in the UK, showing them to be a significant population in terms of UK sheep meat consumption.  

AHDB predict that 80% of halal customers eat lamb on a weekly basis and 64% also eat mutton on a weekly basis compared to only 6% of the general UK population.  As this is undoubtedly a market to be looked after to maintain the future of the UK sheep industry, meeting market demands crucial.  In Scotland, 100% of the halal slaughter trade is stunned prior to slaughter. 

The Global Market 

The EU flock continues to contract rapidly with QMS reporting in their Q1 sheep market update an 8.2% reduction in the 10 years up to 2024.  This is predicted to support UK exports to Europe in 2026 alongside a weaker exchange rate to support the sterling value maintaining margins.  Scotland’s main EU export countries are France, Germany, Belgium, Italy and the Netherlands.  

In Oceania, the gap in prices has narrowed with the EU, driven by strong demand globally alongside supply pressure with flock numbers falling in both Australia and New Zealand in 2025.  

While earlier in 2026, Beef and Lamb NZ reported a further 1.9% decline in the breeding flock in 2025.  However, they did see a 1% increase in the national lamb flock following a positive scan in most regions leaving their export forecast steady.  

In Australia, despite flock constrictions, it is forecasted to enter a period of recovery predicting an increase in ewe numbers of 4.3% by 2027 (Meat & Livestock Australia, 2025). With that, carcass weight is also predicted to increase by around 1kg by 2027 showing an increase in efficiency in the Australian flock.  However, the recovery of the Australian flock alongside the free trade agreement remains a long-term risk to our domestic price. Especially during periods of increased local supply.  

Changes to Shearing Visas 

It has been announced that changes to visa rules removing the seasonal concession that has previously allowed shearers to live and work in the UK for 3 months are to end following an extension for this season, with the concession set to end on the 30th of June this year.  This change poses a major risk to seasonal staff availability with around 75 shearers coming across to the UK each year from New Zealand and Australia. This also potentially risks animal welfare due to potential delays in shearing the national flock leading to increased risk of flystrike, maggots, and heat stress in the flock.  

Conflict in the Middle East 

Dominating the news since the end of February has been the conflicts in the Middle East.  For the UK sheep industry with much of our exports heading into the EU, the conflict is unlikely to affect the movements of sheep meat in the short term.  However, the biggest impact is input costs. With both fuel and fertiliser seeing rapid increases in both cost and availability; putting pressure on margins and feed availability for next winter.  

To plan to mitigate the impact of rising input costs, businesses should consider options to reduce reliance on bought in fertiliser and feedstuffs where possible by reviewing grassland management practices and considering alternative grazing options such as mixed species swards.  

Ending on a positive note 

The results for the Scottish Farm Business survey 2024-25 were released on the 26th March. They show an increase in average farm business income compared to the 2023-2024.  

The average income for a LFA sheep unit rose by 151% with LFA cattle and sheep units up by 54% and lowland cattle and sheep incomes increasing by 22%, largely driven by the increase in livestock prices in 2025.  

There were variable results in terms of input costs with all livestock farms showing a decrease in 2024-25 in fertiliser and feed costs but an increase in labour costs for LFA cattle and sheep units while LFA sheep only units saw labour costs fall by around 6%.  

Lowland cattle and sheep units were the only category of sheep farms to see input costs rise predominantly driven by an increase in land and property costs. More information on the survey results can be found at: ScotGov – Scottish farm business income: annual estimates 2024-2025. 

 

Lorna Shaw; 07796 615719

 

Week ending	GB deadweight (p/kg)				Scottish Auction (p/kg)				Ewes (£/hd)
	16.5 – 21.5kg								Scottish
	R3L	Change on week	Diff over R2	Diff over R3H	Med.	Change on week	Diff over stan.	Diff over heavy	All
28-Feb-26	758.3	33.0	-0.2	1.3	362.30	5.4	7.0	25.3	111.78
07-Mar-26	761.2	2.9	3.3	3.0	373.80	11.5	8.8	24.2	113.20
14-Mar-26	802.8	41.6	-1.6	-0.7	396.90	23.1	12.6	30.7	119.54
21-Mar-26	839.2	36.4	-3.4	-1.9	413.40	16.5	18.4	16.5	131.62

Deadweight prices may be provisional.  Auction price reporting week is slightly different to the deadweight week.
Source: AHDB and IAAS Market information

Standard weight 32.1 – 39.0kg; Medium weight 39.1 – 45.5kg; Heavy 45.6 – 52.0kg