Business and Policy January 2026 – Arable

Grain markets in 2025: a year in review 

Grain markets in 2025 were defined overwhelmingly by supply. Large harvests across the Northern Hemisphere, favourable weather in South America, and intense export competition combined to keep prices under sustained pressure. For UK farmers, this translated into another difficult year, with weak returns at the farmgate set against firm consumer food prices, further highlighting the growing disconnect between agricultural commodity markets and retail inflation. 

On the supply side, 2025 delivered record or near-record output in many key exporting regions. Global wheat supplies rose to all-time highs, with world stocks up year on year and production in top exporting countries increasing by close to 50Mt. Canada harvested a record wheat crop, Australia produced its second-largest winter crop on record, and Argentina and Russia also delivered large volumes despite some regional variability in crop conditions. The EU crop was revised higher again, supported by excellent growing conditions in France and across much of northern Europe. 

Demand, however, failed to keep pace. Global wheat consumption grew only modestly, leaving balance sheets comfortably supplied. Black Sea exporters continued to dominate international trade, using aggressive pricing to clear surplus stocks; while Argentina’s export tax cuts added further pressure to global values. Currency movements amplified these dynamics: a relatively strong euro and sterling reduced European export competitiveness, while a softer US dollar briefly supported American shipments. 

Maize presented a contrasting picture. While the US harvested a very large crop, production downgrades elsewhere – notably in the EU and Ukraine – tightened global stocks. Demand remained robust, driven by strong export flows from the US and rising bioethanol use in both the Americas and Brazil. As a result, maize fundamentals improved through the year, lending periodic support to wider grain markets and preventing wheat prices from falling further. 

Oilseed rape and the wider oilseed complex were pressured by record soya and rapeseed supplies from Canada and Australia. While EU imports from Ukraine fell due to increased domestic crushing there, global availability remained ample, capping rallies despite supportive biofuel demand. 

UK market experience in 2025 

In the UK, these global forces translated into persistently weak prices. Feed wheat values fell to around £157/t ex-farm during early summer, briefly lifted during harvest before drifting lower again into autumn. Milling premiums too, continued to erode, compounding the pressure. 

Regional supply-and-demand dynamics still mattered with price differentials very much in evidence across the country and demonstrated in ex-farm prices collated by Hectare Trading (Fig 1).