Business and Policy January 2026 – Beef

2025 Beef Trade Recap  

2025 will no doubt be remembered for record farmgate prices with beef prices reaching unprecedented levels in the spring. At the start of the year, prices rocketed, with consumer demand and tightening cattle supplies contributing to prices lifting by 25p/kg/dwt in a fortnight. At the end of January, 2025 prices were sitting at 610-615p/kg/dwt. Store cattle also started the year strongly at £4/kg liveweight, meaning finishers were having to pay in excess of £2,000 per head.  

At the start of the March, Scottish finished prices were sitting at 659.5p/kg/dwt and then soared to 691p/kg/dwt for week ending March 22, with Angus sired cattle reportedly hitting £7/kg. Consumer demand continued strongly and beef prices reached unprecedented levels in April with finished prices surpassing £7/kg for the first time, as demand for beef continues to be outstripped by supply. At the start of April, finished deadweight beef prices were sitting at 705p/kg/dwt, over 60% higher compared with the 5-year average. Cull cow trade continued to exceed all expectations, driven by UK demand for manufacturing beef. Prices were sitting nearly £2/kg more than the same week in 2024.  

Consumer demand continued despite many producers questioning the affordability of beef going forward, as record farmgate prices had not yet filtered down to consumers, and retailers had not yet increased prices. However, by mid-May prices were beginning to drop back and - over a six week period - dropped back to 640/650p/kg/ dwt. At these levels, a 380kg carcase was worth approx. £300 less than in April. While it is normal for prices to drop ahead of summer when traditionally consumer demand falls, price volatility at these levels with cattle prices fluctuating by £250–£300 per head in two months, is not normal. Unsurprisingly, trade for store cattle at that time dipped due to the fall in deadweight prices and limited grass availability due to the dry spring. The downward price movement meant that finished prices were at the actual value of some of the strongest stores purchased in the spring.  

During July and August, Southern Ireland saw their deadweight prices move higher than UK price at levels of 658p/kg deadweight. Incredible, when only a few months previously they were 100p/kg lower than UK prices.   

The start of August saw finishers quietly filled with cautious optimism following several weeks of stable deadweight prices with prices edging upwards.  However, prices started to ease once again with consumer demand dropping by 7.4% in 12 weeks, attributed to the increased cost of beef now being passed onto the consumer and increased volumes of imported beef being seen on supermarket shelves. Cull cow prices continued to be strong, running closer to prime prices than usual, reflecting low seasonal slaughter numbers and demand for manufacturing grade beef.  

The autumn store sales started strongly, with one of the earliest weaned calf sales on Skye on 22/9/25 seeing calves weighing 200 kg to 300 kg averaging over 500p/kg liveweight.  A pen of 17 Charolais cross heifers at 248 kg made £1,380 per head equating to 556p/kg liveweight. Producers were finally being rewarded for their hard work and the input costs associated with suckler cows.  Overall, weaned calves averaged over £5/kg this autumn, with many producers receiving between £400 to £600 per head more than last year.  

Prime cattle prices held firm throughout September and the first half of October, despite a seasonal lift in weekly slaughter, pointing to resilient demand.  While prices sat around 9% below their spring peak, they remained around 25% higher than 2024, supported by lower production in 2025. Quite simply, we are getting short of cattle.  

Increased farmgate prices in 2025 have led to supermarkets increasing beef prices which is impacting on consumer spending and demand.  Red meat price inflation in Scotland has accelerated in 2025, reaching 13.7% in September, driven primarily by the beef sector. 

Suckler Cow Trends  

The worrying trend of declining suckler cows continues. Scotland has seen a 11.7% drop in herd numbers from 2015 to 2024; the equivalent of a loss of 51,000 cows.  

While the 2025 June Agricultural census highlighted a 1% fall year on year; the 2025 drop in numbers is not expected to mirror the 2024 drop due to increased positivity and confidence on the back of record farmgate prices; as seen by a surge in demand for breeding cattle this year.  

Breeding cattle throughout May met a flying trade, with all markets reporting increased prices for commercial outfits, with increased buyers ringside. Young cows with calves at foot increased as much as £1,000 from the same sales in 2024. There was also demand for autumn calving cows. While some have increased cow numbers due to recent positivity in the market; it is concerning that 56% of Scotland’s cows are now kept on only 16% of our holdings.  

From a breeding perspective, of note, is the increase in native maternal bred cows, going back onto extensive hill areas due to increased interest and investment in virtual fencing technology allowing for unfenced large extensive hill land to be grazed and managed. 

Christmas Market  

At the time of writing (18/12/25), prices are currently sitting at 640p/kg/deadweight, continuing a downward trend. Prices, however, remain elevated from 2024; beef prices end of December 24 averaged £5.45p/kg/dwt.  

Reports suggest that supplies remain tight, with recent price drops likely due to processors now having completed their Christmas kill. Supermarkets are running several Christmas beef offers promoting premium beef cuts heavily. While it’s great to see beef being promoted, it is not ideal that it is being sold below farmgate prices. 1/2 priced meat being promoted by supermarkets is likely to continue into the New Year.  

Trade for cull cows has continued downwards.  Increased numbers of dairy cows coming forward due to milk prices being slashed is impacting barren cow supplies.

Scotland prime cattle prices (p/kg dwt) (Source: drawn from AHDB and IAAS data)

	Week Ending	R4L Steers (p/kg dwt)			-U4L Steers			Young Bulls -U3L		Cull cows
			Change on week	Diff over North Eng.		Change on week	Diff over North Eng.		Diff over North Eng.	R4L	-O3L
	29-Nov-25	672.2	0.8	-4.1	673.8	2.1	-2.7	658.9	-6.2	577	547.8
	6-Dec-25	672.4	0.2	-0.6	676.3	2.5	7.9	665.6	19.3	563.4	536.6
	13-Dec-25	664.2	-8.2	-1	664.4	-11.9	-7.5	652.5	22.1	556.5	529.2