Business and Policy March 2026 – Sheep

A Steady Incline through February 

Despite starting 2026 with a decline in the deadweight price during January compared to 2025, dropping to a low of 678.7 ppkg (w/c Jan 31st), prices remain strong compared to historical figures. February has seen some recovery with pricing increasing again coinciding with the start of Ramadan on the 18th of the month. However, although the gap has certainly tightened this month as we head into late February, prices are running ~ 5.7 ppkg behind last year.  

Mid-February also saw an increase in number of old season lambs culled compared to this time last year.  Perhaps a response to demand but also indicating an increase in lambs finishing later this season; maybe not a surprise given drought conditions and forages shortages in many areas last year which will have undoubtedly impacted on the early growth rate of lambs.  At time of writing (26/02) numbers had eased again towards the end of the month.   

In their latest market output, AHDB has estimated a 1% increase in lambs carried over into 2026 from last year.  Liveweight has followed a very similar trend with standard to medium hoggs (32.1-45.5kg LW) gaining a stronger price per kg sold in late February.  

The cast ewe trade is remaining strong from last year’s high and is currently in line with averages seen this time last year.  

 

What about domestic supply for 2026/2027? 

Scanning is nearing completion across the country, with the main crop of lambs due to arrive imminently.  Reports of scanning results have been mixed with the consensus that scans have been slightly down on average.  However, there has been a mixed picture depending on geographical location; those areas that weathered the brunt of the drought last spring/summer seem to have been the hardest hit with ewes in wetter areas faring well this last year. But what does this mean for domestic supply?  

AHDB has estimated a drop in UK lamb crop of around 2% from last year linked to a slightly lower breeding flock, coupled with a slightly lower number of lambs reared.  

Demand is predicted to remain steady from 2025 into 2026 with lamb a favoured option for special occasions, eating out and in takeaways.  Steaks and burgers remain the favoured cuts in retail as many household budgets remain constricted.  

AHDB are also forecasting a moderate increase to both imports and exports; with Imports expected to be up 4% and Exports being up 1%.  However, supply on both sides may be the major limiting factor to growth.  Overall, the market is still looking steady with prices to remain firm.  

 

Lorna Shaw; lorna.shaw@sac.co.uk, 07796 615719

 

Week ending	GB deadweight (p/kg)				Scottish auction (p/kg)				Ewes (£/hd)
	16.5 – 21.5kg								Scottish
	R3L	Change on week	Diff over R2	Diff over R3H	Med.	Change on week	Diff over stan.	Diff over heavy	All
31-Jan-26	681.1	-11.7	-0.6	-0.4	328.80	15.0	-4.0	21.4	125.74
07-Feb-26	706.7	25.6	-2.7	0.1	335.80	7.0	-1.6	23.3	126.30
14-Feb-26	716.0	9.3	-1.9	-1.8	332.30	-3.5	-4.7	23.4	115.28
21-Feb-26	725.3	9.3	-4.1	-2.2	356.90	24.6	6.4	26.2	116.15

Deadweight prices may be provisional. Auction price reporting week is slightly different to the deadweight week.
Source: AHDB and IAAS Market information

Standard weight 32.1 – 39.0kg; Medium weight 39.1 – 45.5kg; Heavy 45.6 – 52.0kg