Business and Policy October 2025 – Sheep

September Trade Round-Up 

The breeding and store trade has shown new record levels in many marts.  Cull and prime prices remain above levels from last year.  For the week ending 20th September 2025, the SQQ stood at 670.2 p/kg DW, some 0.29p/kg DW ahead of the same week last year.  For the same week, the cull market averages were £22.74/head ahead of the same week last year, with an average price of £103.27/head. 

 

 New Zealand Outlook 2025-26 

Beef and Lamb New Zealand have recently published their outlook for 2025-26.  Last month, I highlighted the increased tariff rate to 15% for exports from New Zealand to the US.  The report estimates the cost of this to red meat export receipts for one season as a substantial $500 million.   

The outlook for lamb in the short term looks positive for New Zealand producers, with a tight global supply, high demand from the US, EU and the UK, high prices being achieved, interest costs reducing and improved seasonal conditions.  

However, it is forecast that the ewe flock will continue to decrease, with continued land use change to forestry.  It is estimated that with the stock numbers lost to carbon forestry creation between 2017 to 2024 amounts to $1.9 billion in red meat export earnings.   

The volume of lamb processed is estimated to be 1.5% down on the year to 321,500 tonnes bone-in in 2025-26.  In 2024/25, while the tonnage was higher at 326,300 tonnes, the 2024/25 tonnage was down 6.4% on the 2023/24 year where 348,600 tonnes were processed.  Lamb slaughter numbers stood at 18.2 million head in 2023/24, but fell to 16.765 million in 2024/25, and is estimated to fall further to 16.698 million in 2025/26. 

The New Zealand report shows the average price for all wool types is estimated to rise by 2%.  This is driven by growing demand from China and India, coupled with a reduction in supply due to the fall in the national herd and some flocks introducing wool shedding breeds.

 

Australian Lamb 

Australia is currently trading new season lamb, with exceptional prices being reached.  Average prices for the week ending 22nd September 2025 showed at 1,227¢/kg carcase weight (cwt) which equates to ~£5.99 per kg carcass weight.  The high price is due to a low supply, with the drought conditions delaying new season lambs coming forward, and most old season lambs being out of the system.  Many have imported supplementary feeds and concentrates to alleviate the situation.   

 

Global Prices 

There have been great swings in Southern hemisphere and European prices for lamb over the last year as shown in the table below.   

Country	w/e 14/09/24	w/e 13/09/25	Difference
New Zealand	€4.29	€5.25	€ 0.96
Australia	€4.97	€6.55	€ 1.58
GB	€7.62	€7.63	€ 0.01
France	€9.36	€8.69	-€ 0.67
Spain	€8.90	€9.50	€ 0.60

As discussed previously, New Zealand and Australian lamb has seen marked increases in price over the past year.  In addition to which, compared to the UK and France, Spanish lamb has taken a jump in value.  This is largely due to a reduction in production, animal health problems and a strong export market for live animals.  There is a growing demand from Arab countries such as Algeria and Morocco for Spanish lamb.  However, since 2020, the Spanish national flock has decreased by 2 million head, and more recently, Blue Tongue has had a large effect, with a forecast of a 30% production loss in this year.   

 

Kirsten Williams; kirsten.williams@sac.co.uk ; 07798617293  

 

Week ending	GB deadweight (p/kg)				Scottish auction (p/kg)				Ewes (£/hd)
	16.5 – 21.5kg								Scottish
	R3L	Change on week	Diff over R2	Diff over R3H	Med.	Change on week	Diff over stan.	Diff over heavy	All
06-Sep-25	675.0	-21.1	0.4	-2.8	303.70	-2.0	7.7	2.8	110.37
13-Sep-25	662.5	-12.5	-2.2	-4.4	299.60	-4.1	27.5	4.5	101.83
20-Sep-25	671.4	8.2	-4.8	-4.6	309.90	10.3	3.4	5.6	103.27

Deadweight prices may be provisional.  Auction price reporting week is slightly different to the deadweight week.      Source: AHDB and IAAS
Standard weight 32.1 – 39.0kg; Medium weight 39.1 – 45.5kg; Heavy 45.6 – 52.0kg
Note: From 11th May, prices transition to new season lambs