Farming in a rapidly changing and chaotic climate
31 March 2025Lower yields, earlier harvest dates, crop establishment difficulties and higher cost for additional supplementary livestock feed are some of the impacts affecting the farming community as a result of climate change. In this article, we explore the latest research on climate risks faced by the sector and discuss how nature-based solutions, such as natural flood management and regenerative agriculture can help your farm weather future events.
Sustainability and resilience are at the forefront of what is proposed not just to sustain our businesses today, but to leave a legacy for future generations to remain custodians of a thriving and productive landscape.
What can we expect in the future?
Research from WWF Scotland highlighted that extreme weather from 2017-2018 alone cost Scottish farmers £161 million due to livestock losses and lower crop yields[1]. We are living in a rapidly warming and chaotic climate, seeing the effects of drought, flooding and extreme weather events across Scotland. But there is still time to make a difference.
Figure 1: Adapted from Adaptation Scotland's Climate Protections for Scotland Summary [2]
Scotland is going to face up to 40 % drier summers and 12 % wetter winters in a high emissions scenario, where temperatures may rise by 4.3˚C in 2081-2100 compared to pre-industrial levels (that is the average temperature from 1850-1900). There may be an east and west divide between Scotland, where the west and west coast will experience higher frequency of extreme rainfall whereas the east will experience higher frequency of droughts.
The potential climate change risks and impacts
What follows are some projections based on models from the Met office. You can refer to an explanatory note on these modelled emissions scenarios here.
Flooding
High impact rainfall events that lead to flooding are predicted to increase in frequency for northwest, south, and east of Scotland. Compared to 1960-1989 average, winter will be wetter with number of heavy rain days predicted to increase up to 4 days between 2020-2049 and 2050-2079 time periods. A 2024 Centre of Expertise for Waters (CREW) publication modelled soil compaction and sealing can lead to surface run-off, increasing flooding risk by 1 %[5]. In a high emissions scenario, one study projected the frequency of extreme rainfall events to increase by 85% between 2019 to 2080 in the UK[6].
Drought and water scarcity
The growing season across arable parts of Scotland has experienced longer dry periods. From May to October, predictions suggest an increase of 1-3 days of consecutive dry days from now until 2050[7]. SEPA’s Water Scarcity Reports show that many parts of Scotland have had drier than normal conditions this winter, following a dry autumn. Without significant above average rainfall in spring and summer, there is an increased risk of water scarcity which could lead to restrictions on water abstraction[8].
Pest and disease outbreak
New and emerging pests, diseases, and invasive species are a growing risk with a warming climate and milder winter. As our climate changes, more species will expand their range northwards[9]. It is estimated that 15-20% of crops in Scotland are lost to pests and diseases annually, totaling to £200 million[10].
Soil degradation
The 2024 CREW report indicated soil compaction could cost farmers between £15 to £209 per hectare in extra fuel use (depending on crop type), along with additional impacts on yield, citing potential losses of 18.2% for spring barley. Soil degradation and loss also leads to poorer water quality downstream and further GHG emissions.
Storm surges
Storm Arwen, Franklin, Barra, Corrie, Dudley, and Desmond to name a few, with strong gusts reaching 70 mph or more, and extreme rainfall has led to significant damage to forestry and disruption to residents with severe localised flooding. These occurrences are not random, historical trends and climate model simulations show that the effect of climate change made precipitation (rain/snow/sleet/hail) events like the one caused by Desmond about 40 % more likely[11].
What you can do to mitigate or adapt to these changes
There is still time to make a difference. Nature-based solutions work with natural processes and can help farms to simultaneously improve yield, mitigate climate impacts, and benefit both biodiversity and people. However, as climate change worsens, their capacity to deliver benefits will be limited as ecosystems degrade and biodiversity declines.
Delaying implementation will be more costly in the future as man-made substitutes are far more expensive and cannot deliver multiple co-benefits such as pollination, healthy soils, water purification and flood regulation which could arise from a single nature-based solution like 3D riparian buffer zones for example.
Some measures you can implement on your farm
Natural flood management
Natural flood management techniques can offer so many benefits to the farm and the wider catchment. These include:
- Leaky barriers
- On-farm temporary storage ponds
- Bunds
- Floodplain wetlands
- Riparian woodlands
Further information is available here
Temporary storage areas, which can be adopted by individual farms can help mitigate extreme weather events and floods. These areas can also help minimise drought impacts by holding water during dry periods. Additionally, some areas that capture nutrient rich eroded sediments can be collected and reapplied on field to support nutrient recycling[12].
Please note that some of these measures and activities fall under the Controlled Activities Regulations (CAR) so be sure to contact SEPA[13] to understand the relevant regulations regarding natural flood management, water abstraction and sediment removal. You can find out more in the list of resources at the end of this article.
Regenerative agriculture
Regenerative agriculture is a system of farming that aims to conserve and enhance soil health, organic matter and biodiversity. The principles of regenerative agriculture remain ever so relevant in mitigating climate change. Measures that keep soil covered, minimise soil disturbance, and enable diversity on-farm will help improve soil health with higher organic matter content. This in turn will support water infiltration and moisture in soils. Examples of regenerative agriculture measures include use of cover crops, rotational grazing and agroforestry. Moving away from monocultures into more diverse cropping and livestock systems can spread the risk. It may not suit all, but could help farm businesses to remain resilient not only against various pests and diseases, but also climate events such as drought and flooding. The table below highlights some applicable nature-based solutions in Scotland and the climate change mitigation outcomes they can deliver[14] [15].
| Measures | Climate change mitigation impacts |
|---|---|
| Natural flood management measures – on farm water storage | Flooding Drought and water scarcity Soil Degradation |
| Natural flood management measures – riparian wetlands, tree planting | Flooding Drought and water scarcity Pest and disease outbreak Soil degradation |
| Cropping diversity- intercropping, cover crops, rotational cropping | Flooding Drought and water scarcity Pest and disease outbreak Soil degradation |
| Species-rich field margins and 3D buffer strips including hedgerows and trees | Flooding Drought and water scarcity Pest and disease outbreak Soil degradation |
| Multi-paddock/mob/rotational grazing | Flooding Drought and water scarcity Soil degradation |
Further resources can be found at:
Nature-based solutions for climate change in the UK
Evaluating agreoecological farming practices - Report for Defra
Are nature-based solutions the best solution for you?
The simple answer is, it depends. No one measure would guarantee a positive outcome, the best intervention is one that is suited to your farming system, soil type, water table, surrounding land management, vegetation etc. Measures are only as good as their design and placement. The best way is to experiment, learn and adapt to suit your farm. With worsening climate impacts, nature-based solutions should expand beyond field edges and hedges, where land-use should accommodate both productive use and biodiverse habitats. For example, integrating trees on arable land, planting mixed species forest, or intercropping . This means we must shift from monoculture systems optimised for efficient production to diverse cropping and species-rich habitats across the farmed landscape.
What are the trade-offs if I adopt nature-based solutions?
Continuing with business-as-usual could make your farm riskier and more prone to yield loss or damages arising from floods, drought, soil degradation, pest and disease outbreak. The cost of inaction may outweigh the cost of implementing nature-based solutions now.
As one can expect, not all farms have non-productive areas to set aside for restoration and flood management. There is an opportunity cost in letting go productive land for nature-based solutions. However, with diverse cropping measures and integrating trees on arable land, fields can still be managed for production whilst delivering additional co-benefits.
Insurance companies and banks are also assessing natural capital on farm and embedding climate risks into underwriting for premiums and loans. Access to such financial tools may be conditional on a farm’s risk rating to climate impacts in the near future16.
What limitations are there with current implementation?
While some measures can benefit individual farms, resilience and effectiveness depend on neighbouring land-use and location of farms. Nature-based solutions need to be scaled-up, landscape-wide. For example, some natural flood management measures would require collaboration across multiple land managers at a catchment scale, especially with slowing down peak river flows, which can include leaky barriers at headwaters, riparian wetlands, floodplain reconnection and river re-meandering. So speak with your neighbours and see what can be done.
The government has set up channels for private investment to enable landscape-wide climate mitigation and adaptation efforts, such as Nature Restoration Fund, Facility for Investment Ready Nature in Scotland (FIRNS), and collaborative frameworks like Landscape Enterprise Networks (LENs) and Regional Land Use Partnerships. However, policy support needs to be scaled up for higher uptake of nature-based solutions. More joined up policy such as harmonised regulations with water management and nature restoration, and Agri-Environment Climate Schemes (AECS) that deliver sustained, long-term support will be needed to achieve the scale of effort and adoption required for effective action.
Where can I learn more?
FAS has a helpful page on climate change adaptation with more information on various measures you can implement on farm. You can look them up here:
Farm Advisory Service - Climate Adaptation Page
For more information on natural flood management and sustainable water management, click here: https://www.fas.scot/environment/water-management/sustainable-water-management/
Alternatively you can visit Farming and Water Scotland’s page here: https://www.farmingandwaterscotland.org/managing-water/natural-flood-management/
SEPA have a host of material available on Sustainable riverbank protection, including a practical guide which demonstrates what farmers can implement without contacting SEPA as long as General binding rules are followed, which can be found here: https://www.sepa.org.uk/regulations/water/engineering/sustainable-riverbank-protection/
For further guidance and an overview of water management regulations in Scotland, refer to this FAS page here.
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