Agribusiness News November 2024 – Sheep

Supply and Demand

The sheep trade currently shows a true reflection of the balance between global supply and demand.  AHDB have recently shown that the UK clean sheep slaughter for Jan-Sept 2024 stands at 8.19 million head, some 700,000 head or 7.9% less than that in the same period in 2023.

With less lamb being produced and processed, our import and export markets have been affected.  With more lamb being imported to supply our domestic demand, and less being available for export.

Figure 1: Deadweight price across key countries (€/kg). Source: Bord Bia

 

If we look to Europe, the effect is very similar, with less sheep in the national flock, production is reduced and exports in the first half of 2024, have shown to be 14% lower than that of 2023, with a forecast of 10% by the end of 2024.  However, with

Figure 2: Scottish Cull Ewe Price 2019-2024. Source: AHDB

the imbalance between supply and demand, the price is at a premium, at a time of year when it is usually not.  For the week ending 19/10/2024 the French lamb price stood at €9.67/kg DW, a 15.9% change on the same week last year.

With fewer ewes in the UK national flock, we are witnessing a greater price for culls.  With cull ewes averaging higher than the last five years since March this year.

Land Use Change

New Zealand producers have received news in October of the Alliance Smithfield, Timaru abattoir closing, this has the processing capacity for 900,000 lambs and ewes; this is a reflection of the effect on changing land use in New Zealand.  Beef and Lamb NZ have recently published a report they commissioned and conducted by Orme & Associates looking at the “Land-use change from pastoral farming to large-scale forestry”.  This shows that between 2017 and the end of June 2024, a total of 261,733 ha of sheep and beef producing land was purchased for conversion to forestry.  Beef and Lamb NZ estimate for every 10,000 ha of land that is planted in forestry, equates to around 1 million stock units being lost.  Showing the extent of how the land management is changing and how their national flocks and herds are declining.

Disease Threats

Bluetongue continues to spread across Europe, making a risk for importing animals from countries who currently have disease.  As of the 20^th October England has 145 cases and Wales has 2 cases confirmed.  The English Winter Fair has recently been cancelled due to fears of how close the venue at Staffordshire is to the Bluetongue restricted zone.

Bluetongue is spread by certain biting midges, movement of infected animals or products (semen, embryos, etc) and infected pregnant animals transmitting to their young.  Producers are being urged to source stock responsibly, and to have strict biosecurity measures for any purchased stock, while remaining vigilant for signs.

Kirsten Williams; 07798617293