Business and Policy June 2026 – Sheep

New season lamb in high demand

The strong market experienced from March has continued to grow well past the traditional period of peak demand over Easter and Ramadan. Prices have continued to soar as we head further into new season lamb with prices peaking around 942.5 p/kg for a R3L (w/c 23rd May 26) now ahead of prices seen in 2024 (peak of around 926.4p/kg) and far exceeding this time last year (Source: AHDB, 2026). Liveweight prices are following a similar trend but are starting to show some signs of a slight ease from the previous week with average currently at 458.57p/kg (source: QMS 23/5/26). So, what are the factors leading to this strengthening lamb market, in their latest market summary AHDB reported the following:  

• A rise in clean sheep slaughter (+5%) in Q1 from an increase in old season lamb carried over coupled with increased slaughter weights eased into April, down by almost 20% from March reducing supply.  

• Reduced domestic sheep numbers due to a tightening breeding flock alongside weather and disease challenges.  

• Eid al-Adha is celebrated on 27th May maintaining a demand for old season lamb (13-15 months old).  

• Strengthening of exports driven by EU demand and decreased EU production (expected fall of around 5%). Q1 exports are reportedly up by almost 18% in volume and around 25% in value, year on year (AHDB, 2026).   

• Import volumes remaining steady with the increase in Australian import volumes just exceeding a decline in imports from New Zealand. 

May has also seen a peak in cull ewe price, with prices peaking at £152.9 (QMS/AHDB – 16th May). However, as more start to come on the market following weaning of early lambing flocks, the price has declined slightly to sit at £145.35 for the following week, although still £17.18/head ahead of this time last year.   

Globally prices are following a similar trend with Spain and France continuing to lead global lamb price in the high 900s (p/kg) with GB and Ireland sitting in the middle. Australian lamb price is continuing strengthen currently sitting above 600 p/kg with New Zealand sitting between 400-500 p/kg.   

Q1 GB lamb buying trends 

Worldpanel by numerator / AHDB have also reported the latest Q1 lamb buying trends with total spend up by 3.4% driven by increasing prices rather than overall demand with volume in both retail sales and food service seeing a reduction.   

It was not all bad news, however, with some areas witnessing increased demand in the first three months of 2026. These included stewing cuts, marinades, breast, steak and burgers seeing a switch away from other proteins for these cuts. With the BBQ season upon us, can this trend for lamb continue? Roasting demand over easter also soared to the highest level for five years, up 8.6% year on year. For takeaways, the lamb kebab also seen an increase of just about 2%.    

Short term outlook 

Given the unseasonal high of the current lamb market some price easing may be expected as more new season lambs starts to enter the supply chain and demand for hoggs eases following Eid al-Adha, and as the quality of hoggs reduces late in the season. However, with export demand strong and reduced supply following flock restrictions and a slightly lower lamb crop (estimated -2%) following weather and disease challenges in 2025, this easing may be steadied if our current domestic supply allows us to keep up with demand for EU Export.   

Weather and disease challenges are likely to be the biggest drivers again for this year’s to lamb performance and the ability of farms to react to challenges will be paramount not only for the performance of this year’s lamb crop but also for the 2027 lamb crop.   

Wins for wool 

In other good news for the sheep industry wool prices are also starting to see recovery following several difficult years for the industry. British Wool has recently released the 2025 wool clip prices which show a 32% rise from 2024, representing the highest prices seen for 10 years to give an average wool return for all breed of around 68.5 p/kg for all wool types. 2026 is also predicted to see another strong increase adding an additional 25-30 p/kg on average. This has largely been driven by an increase in demand for British produced wool products and a move away, in some cases, from synthetic fibres. British wool has also reported increased brand awareness by consumers following several successful marketing campaigns to promote British produced wool.   

This upturn in prices should hopefully increase farm confidence in wool again and encourage farmers to once again return to gaining some income from wool, helping towards covering the costs of shearing. As always, ensuring quality and presentation of wool will be paramount to making the most of the current value.  

 

Week ending	GB deadweight (p/kg)				Scottish auction (p/kg)				Ewes (£/hd)
	16.5 – 21.5kg								Scottish
	R3L	Change on week	Diff over R2	Diff over R3H	Med.	Change on week	Diff over stan.	Diff over heavy	All
02-May-26	847.0	-3.5	9.9	5.6	391.30	-16.8	18.2	20.7	145.25
09-May-26	842.8	-4.2	3.9	0.5	414.30	23.0	32.0	21.7	149.80
16-May-26	878.9	36.1	4.5	3.8	417.20	2.9	29.0	14.0	152.90
23-May-26	942.5	63.6	-2.6	-0.7	459.70	42.5	-2.0	19.3	145.35

Deadweight prices may be provisional. Auction price reporting week is slightly different to the deadweight week.
Source: AHDB and IAAS Market information

Standard weight 32.1 – 39.0kg; Medium weight 39.1 – 45.5kg; Heavy 45.6 – 52.0kg

Please note price reporting changed to new season lamb on the 23rd of May from old season, hence the price differential.   

 

Lorna Shaw; lorna.shaw@sac.co.uk; 07796 615719