Business and Policy August 2026 – Sheep

Seasonal Declines Supported by Slower Supply  

Prime lamb prices have continued to ease into July following typical seasonal trends although remaining above the 5-year average and ahead of this time last year with deadweight SQQ sitting at 809.2p/kg (w/e 25th July 2026) +55.1p/kg year-on-year (AHDB, 2026). Well fleshed lambs are certainly demanding a premium. Although supply has seasonally increased with grass fed NSL hitting the market, 2026 prices continue to be supported by an overall tightened supply following early marketing of hoggs this year. Scottish auction throughput of new season lambs has been strong this year however, with QMS reporting in their Q2 market report that supply has been above the 5-year average and well above 2025 levels. This is most likely down to several factors including favourable conditions at lambing and good grazing conditions in early spring supporting grass growth during early lactation and getting lambs off to a good start.   

Cull ewe prices have remained buoyant throughout the summer with prices up 24.46p/kg year-on-year to sit at 152.18 p/kg (w/e 25th July 2026, QMS/AHDB). With increased numbers continuing to come onto the market post weaning, and breeding selections in the next few weeks following the dry weather, we may see prices easing slightly in the short term, in line with seasonal trends.  

Short Term Outlook

In the short-term, lamb prices could see some further easing before recovery into the autumn, as supply continues to trickle through, although this may be slightly impacted by the drought conditions seen in many areas of the country, resulting in a longer time to finish in dry regions (although many have now started to supplement to help address any shortfall of grass).  Last year saw a slight increase in the mature ewe flock again, however, with scanning numbers potentially down following the 2025 dry spell, lamb numbers in 2026 are likely to remain steady although it is too early to tell for certain.   

Retail demand could continue to be slightly pressured domestically as the high prices seen in early 2026 pass on to consumers. However, imports have been reduced in Q2 due to flock contractions in the southern hemisphere, and this has the potential to aid domestic demand providing supply allows. Export demand to the EU remains strong from the UK, further supporting the domestic market.     

Drought conditions currently experienced throughout England, Wales and both southern and eastern Scotland may have an impact on lamb performance and supply in the coming months. However, many flocks have started to provide supplementary feed earlier to boost performance until grass growth recovers. At the time of writing, southern and eastern Scotland has just seen its first rain for several weeks, which may limit the impact of the dry spell. Drought conditions may also impact the store market with many flocks forced to sell a proportion of lamb’s store instead of finishing if grazing continues to be tighter than budgeted for, potentially increasing store lamb supply and easing returns. There is already a good demand in the market for short and medium keep lambs.   

Retail Demand Update 

Retail trends for Q2 of 2026 were released at the start of July and reported by AHDB. Overall lamb sales declined in volume over the previous three months, but spending has increased with the strong market prices trickling down to the consumer and as a result, consumers are spending more per visit. Lamb steaks remain a popular cut for consumers over larger joints such as roasts, suggesting that larger joints tend to be favoured for special occasion eating. Other cuts that have seen growth include those considered ‘added value’, such as sous vide and marinades that are favoured for convenience but also well suited to the summer BBQ market during the warmer months.   

Prepare in Advance for Breeding Sales 

The breeding sale season is already underway with early pedigree ram sales followed by female and shearling rams in August and September; now is the ideal time to evaluate flock performance to best assess replacement needs before sale day. The decisions made on sale day can make a huge impact on the success of the following breeding season and overall profitability of the flock. Consider market demands, production system, your own flock goals as well as those of the seller when selecting stock to ensure every purchase can make a good return.  

Resources to help you prepare can be found here.  

Lorna Shaw, lorna.shaw@sac.co.uk; 07796 615719 

 

Week ending	GB deadweight (p/kg)				Scottish auction (p/kg)				Ewes (£/hd)
	16.5 – 21.5kg								Scottish
	R3L	Change on week	Diff over R2	Diff over R3H	Med.	Change on week	Diff over stan.	Diff over heavy	All
04-Jul-26	831.3	-39.0	1.7	1.1	394.80	-22.9	-4.6	-2.7	150.83
11-Jul-26	803.2	-28.1	-3.3	-3.2	380.50	-14.3	9.5	-5.2	145.16
18-Jul-26	806.4	3.2	-2.8	1.8	393.40	12.9	10.9	-4.4	156.26
25-Jul-26	811.4	5.0	2.0	3.3	375.00	-18.4	9.1	-2.3	152.18

Deadweight prices may be provisional.  Auction price reporting week is slightly different to the deadweight week.                            
Source: AHDB and IAAS Market information  

Standard weight 32.1 – 39.0kg; Medium weight 39.1 – 45.5kg; Heavy 45.6 – 52.0kg