Business and Policy July 2026 – Sheep

Tightened supply supports strong market into summer 

The GB deadweight SQQ lamb price has remained largely steady over the start of June from its high in late May of 944.1p/kg (w/e 23/5/26). With old season lamb supplies very much coming to an end, domestic supply has remained tight towards the start of the month with lower number of new season lambs coming forward across the UK. However, with more new season lamb now starting to reach a finish, following a flush of grass, we have seen prices ease as we pass the midway point of the month with a similar pattern seen for both dead and liveweight lambs sold following typical seasonal trends. Price remains strongly ahead of this time last year, however., Wwith a 21kg carcass worth an additional £33.09 compared to last year , and a 42kg LW lamb worth an additional £27.01 a head for the third week in June (2025 v 2026) (AHDB, 2026). At time of writing, the country has just come through a heatwave which has particularly affected southern areas of the UK, and this may steady supply due to further grazing pressure as we move through the summer.  

Average cull ewe price has also remained steady sitting between £144-£147/head, up by around £12.50/head year-on-year (w/e 20th June). Cull ewe numbers are expected remain steady until around August/September when we typically see a larger number of cull ewes come onto the market post weaning.  

 

Southern hemispheres import update   

AHDB’s latest import update highlights that New Zealand has been hitting historical highs following flock contractions leading to reduced lamb supplies. However there has been signs of easing, with recovery expected, as numbers decrease as NZ nears the end of their season. Supply in NZ has been better than expected following a good lambing and favourable conditions, however, the lamb cull has still been down by around 5% year-on-year so far for 2026. NZ remains the UK’s primary importer, contributing around 11% of all lamb imported into the UK but with supplies tightened and NZ looking at other markets, NZ imports are looking likely to reduce with volume decreased by 16% so far this year.   

The 16% decrease to UK imports from NZ is very much being met with Australian lamb imports increasing to the UK by around 15% for the same period, although still below quota levels. Like NZ, farmgate prices remain high due to tight domestic supply, primarily due to challenging seasonal conditions in southern Australia reducing lamb production, although carcass weight has increased, following changes to breeding and feeding systems. Longer term, Australian meat and livestock are expected to see some steady recovery in production over the next couple of years, although export growth to the UK is predicted to be moderate, with closer markets being a priority.  

 

Capitalising on opportunity this summer  

With prices strong, there is opportunity to capitalise on margins to optimise potential profits from sheep this season. To make the most of favourable market prices, now is a good time to review performance of the sheep system to optimise profits.  

• Is weight gain on track for our target slaughter age on farm? 

• Are ewes performing as expected? 

• How is grazing holding up to summer challenges?  

• How many lambs are we finishing on grazing alone?  

• What, if any, are the limiting factors to performance reaching target?  

• Are ewes performing as expected?  

• Should we be considering creep feed to increase gain as grazing quality drops in later summer? 

Now is as good a time as any to take stock and review system performance to ensure the business can make the best opportunity from a strong market.   

 

QMS Meating our Potential highlights strong prospects for the Scottish sheep sector 

At Scotsheep this year, QMS launched the next round of their ‘Meating the Potential’ campaign where they have been focussing on sheep. Highlights of the campaign included the opportunity to increase sheep production in Scotland by 4,300t (+5% ewes at current production rate) to meet demand with a potential value of £77,000,000 in output and increasing gross value added (GVA) by £21,000,000 into the Scottish economy. This was predominantly due to strong export opportunities but also due to domestic demand drivers such as increased demand for protein and reduction in numbers in England. With 90% of Scotland’s sheep in less favoured areas (June 2025) this brings massive potential to remote areas of the country.  Changes to SGRPID greening rules means that more farmers will be considering establishing green cover crops this year and this change will bring an opportunity to integrate more sheep into arable rotations, with the potential for improved soil structure, health and production.  

Lorna Shaw, lorna.shaw@sac.co.uk; 07796 615719

 

Week ending	GB deadweight (p/kg)				Scottish auction (p/kg)				Ewes (£/hd)
	16.5 – 21.5kg								Scottish
	R3L	Change on week	Diff over R2	Diff over R3H	Med.	Change on week	Diff over stan.	Diff over heavy	All
30-May-26	940.9	-1.6	-5.9	-0.4	456.80	-2.9	-5.4	17.5	144.45
06-Jun-26	935.7	-5.2	1.3	-0.4	464.10	7.3	-15.2	-1.8	147.05
13-Jun-26	938.2	2.5	0.1	2.0	459.20	-4.9	0.0	-3.4	144.51
20-Jun-26	907.0	-32.2	1.6	0.7	437.20	-22.0	-2.1	-6.5	147.18

Deadweight prices may be provisional. Auction price reporting week is slightly different to the deadweight week.
Source: AHDB and IAAS Market information

Standard weight 32.1 – 39.0kg; Medium weight 39.1 – 45.5kg; Heavy 45.6 – 52.0kg