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Agribusiness News February 2025 – Milk

31 January 2025

Milk production data

AHDB’s latest forecast has put GB milk production for the 2024/25 milk year at 12.43 billion litres, which is 0.9% higher than the previous year.  GB milk production figures for December were 1,054 million litres, 3.3% more than in December 2023 and an average daily production of 34 million litres/day.  The Defra UK milk volume for December was 1,278mlitres, 57mlitres more than November and 4.2% up on the December 2023 volume.  The favourable milk price to feed price ratio has no doubt helped drive production over the last few months, with the ratio now at 1.48 – the highest it’s been since March 2008!

Farm-gate prices

While milk volumes have taken a slight dip in early January, they are still well above this time last year and with commodity prices easing, it looks like we have seen the last of the milk price rises for a while as we enter the seasonal period of higher spring milk volumes. The Defra farm-gate milk price for December was 47.09ppl, 0.39ppl higher than the November price. Müller held their milk price for February and at the time of writing, no other announcements had been made.

Milk Prices for Nov/Dec 2024 ScotlandStandard Ltr ppl
First Milk2Jan45.35
Müller - Müller Direct - Scotland 1, 3 Feb42.25
Grahams1 Jan40
Arla Farmers2Jan48.54
Lactalis / Fresh Milk Co.2 Jan44.72
Liquid standard litre – annual av. milk price based on supplying 1m litres at 4.0% butterfat, 3.3% protein, bactoscan = 30, SCC = 200 unless stated otherwise.
Manufacturing standard litre - annual av. milk price based on supplying 1m litres at 4.2% butterfat, 3.4% protein, bactoscan = 30, SCC = 200 unless stated otherwise.
Includes 1.00ppl Müller Direct Premium. Haulage deducted depending on band for 2023 vs 2021 litres, ranging from -0.25 to -0.85ppl.

 

Dairy commodities & market indicators

The wholesale markets for dairy commodities continued to ease back in January, with bulk cream showing the largest drop of 13% from the previous month, partly down to the post-Christmas slump in demand.  With increasing milk volumes both in GB and in the EU, commodity prices for fats and cheese have declined.  Butter stocks are still tight, and buyers are not purchasing too far forward, in the anticipation of lower prices as the spring flush emerges.  Given the drop in the butter price, AMPE fell 1.38ppl.  With only a 2% fall in the mild cheddar price, MCVE dropped back just 0.5ppl.  The Milk Market Value (MMV) indicator fell 0.99ppl to 43.61ppl for January, the third consecutive drop in a row from its 2024 high of 46.37ppl in October.

UK dairy commodity prices (£/tonne)JanDecJul
202520242024
Butter8,1806,4705,680
Skim Milk Powder (SMP)2,0902,1002,010
Bulk Cream2,6303,0162,528
Mild Cheddar3,9904,0803,770

UK milk price equivalents (ppl)JanDecJul
202520242024
AMPE 44.0145.3940.49
MCVE 43.54439.65

© AHDB [2025].  All rights reserved.

 

The latest GDT auction on the 21st of January resulted in the price index moving upwards by just 1.4% to a weighted average price across all products of $4,146/t. The first auction of the year returned a 1.4% decline, so all in all, little change so far in 2025.  The biggest positive movements were seen in whole milk powder and cheddar, up 5% and 2.8% respectively from the previous auction.

Müller’s carbon reduction programme

In conjunction with Kite Consulting, Müller has introduced its new FastTrack software programme to 40 dairy farmers to help cut their carbon emissions.  The programme uses real-time data analysis to monitor important key performance indicators, which will aid decision making and help towards achieving Müller’s goal to reduce on-farm carbon emissions by 30% by 2030 (compared to the 2022 baseline year). FastTrack integrates data from various sources, one of which is the feed management system Feedlync, which monitors feed efficiency, energy corrected milk output, livestock numbers & reproductive performance.

 

A glass of milk a day keeps cancer away!

Recent research by the University of Oxford has confirmed the benefits of calcium-rich foods in protecting against colorectal cancer.

The study revealed that consuming an additional 300mg of calcium a day – the amount found in a 244ml glass of milk – reduced the risk of colorectal cancer by 17%. It is thought that calcium binds to bile acids and free fatty acids to protect the intestinal lining from their damaging effects.

Lorna MacPherson, lorna.macpherson@sac.co.uk

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