Agribusiness News February 2023

Welcome to the February edition of Agribusiness News.  If you prefer to download this document click the download button. Subscribe to receive this newsletter to your inbox each month.

N e w s  i n  b r i e f

Recession expected to last to 2024

The year has opened with some stark evaluative figures on the UK's economic performance through 2022, with the UK being the only major industrialised country to see a retraction in its economy throughout the year, and no recovery to pre-pandemic levels. The Office for Budget Responsibility now predicts that the economy will be in recession for around a year from Q3 2022, with a contraction of around 0.6% over 2023; these predictions are expected to be reflected in a possible interest rate rise from 3.5 to 4% (the 10th rise since 2021), which will be confirmed or denied by the Bank of England Monetary Committee when they next meet on the 3rd of February.

Three years on from Brexit, businesses are reflecting that deregulation and trade deals, and subsequently, UK trade overall has lagged behind post-Brexit expectations, with increased costs and the highest UK inflation rate since 1982 exacerbating issues. Given that globally the IMF forecasts growth of 2.9% this year; it is hoped that the UK will begin to bounce back in 2024.

In farming news, recent analysis has indicated that the national beef herd has shrunk in the last year to an average size of 143 cows, and a fall in 413,000 cows between 2011 and 2021. This figure in itself indicates various factors, including record prices for cull cows, an uptick in consumer demand for red meat (in response to rising white meat prices), and a subsequent offloading of unproductive cows towards the end of 2023. This could mean one of two major things for the beef industry; a possible shortage of animals in the coming months or an improvement in productivity of the current herd. To help achieve the latter, our management matters article highlights the importance of bull fertility.

Next month:

• Financial planning
• Pig update

This month's editor: Anna Sellars