Business and Policy November 2026 – Sheep

Prices for prime lamb and cull ewes remain firm as we enter the last quarter of 2026 driven by an overall tightened lamb supply highlighted in the 2026 June census. The store trade is also showing strong demand particularly for long keep lambs with some optimism building for early 2027 prices amid a predicted lower carryover into early 2027. This month we also hear the result from the QMS annual export survey demonstrating strong growth for Scottish lamb exports and get an update from the continent.   

Tight supply and high demand driving trade 

Despite an increase in back-end supply following a tight summer throughput, the overall reduction in GB lamb supply this year and strong EU export value continues to underpin a strengthened lamb market.  The prime lamb price has remained largely steady during October with a decrease of around 10 p/kg over the course of the month in both deadweight (R3L) and live markets (price in the table below). The market still remains seasonally strong around 58.5 p/kg ahead of this time last year and well ahead of the 5 year average.   

The store markets remain firm with long keep lambs in high demand amid optimism around early 2027 prices for finishers and a predicted tighter supply of lambs into the new year. Short keep lambs appear to be harder sold with margins tighter for a short turnaround and only small market shifts predicted in the short term.   

The cull ewe trade also remains firm with little shift throughout October and prices above this time last year. Supply continues to follow seasonal trends with price predicted to increase slightly again amid seasonal reductions in supply towards the end of the year.   

Overall, in the short-term, prices are predicted to remain firm with a small increase possible in December to meet Christmas demand. Supply is looking seasonally strong with lamb numbers into the new year potentially back compared to last year’s high carryover.  

 

June Agricultural Census 

The outcomes from the Scottish June agricultural census were published during early October. The data shows a slight increase (+0.3%) on the year in breeding ewe numbers, indicating some signs for optimism and growth in the industry. However, this represents a 1.3% decrease on the 5-year average ewe numbers.  

Lamb numbers show a bit of a different story but perhaps unsurprising given the tightened supply throughout the year with a decrease of 1.6% year-on-year, representing a decrease of 3.5% on the 5-year average and demonstrating a slight reduction in productivity. In England, lamb numbers reduced by 0.5% between 2025 and 2026.  

 

Scottish Export Update  

This month QMS published the results of their annual export survey with red meat exports showing a healthy increase of 25% in volume along with a 10% rise in revenue for Scotland’s red meat sector. The lamb sector, in particular, has been the real winner, showing a 22% increase in exports predominately into the EU.   

This follows strong GB exports in the first few months of this year, and steadying levels into the later months (at a similar rate compared to 2025) with QMS predicting a GB export growth of 0.7% between January and August.  

 

Updates from Australia and New Zealand

India-NZ Free Trade Agreement 

A removal of the 33% tariff of NZ sheep meat into India marks the opening of new market opportunities for NZ in a market with significant potential. With our main importers into the GB market being Australia and NZ this change in trading agreements marks a potential shift for future trade.  

Australia to enter into flock rebuilding phase after some much needed rain. 

Following drought conditions over the last 2 years restricting the Australian flock. Meat and livestock Australia (MLA) are predicting a period of flock rebuild again after a period of rainfall renewing optimism for Australian sheep producers and improving overall conditions. MLA estimate this increase to be around 2% in 2027 with a potential rise again in 2028. In the short-term supply is tight following a fall in slaughter rate until the flock rebuilds, potentially limiting growth in imports to GB in the short term. However, with New Zealand supply tight and new markets opening, Australian export potential looks set to strengthen.  

 

Lorna Shaw, lorna.shaw@sac.co.uk

 

Week ending	GB deadweight (p/kg)				Scottish auction (p/kg)				Ewes (£/hd)
	16.5 – 21.5kg								Scottish
	R3L	Change on week	Diff over R2	Diff over R3H	Med.	Change on week	Diff over stan.	Diff over heavy	All
03-Oct-26	733.5	0.7	-0.9	0.0	329.40	0.9	7.4	14.7	122.18
10-Oct-26	726.5	-7.0	0.6	1.5	321.20	-8.2	-2.0	16.9	121.86
17-Oct-26	721.8	-4.7	-1.1	-0.3	322.60	1.4	-10.7	15.1	125.62
24-Oct-26	722.1	0.3	-1.3	0.7	321.40	-1.2	-4.2	18.4	122.30

Deadweight prices may be provisional. Auction price reporting week is slightly different to the deadweight week.
Source: AHDB and IAAS Market information

Standard weight 32.1 – 39.0kg; Medium weight 39.1 – 45.5kg; Heavy 45.6 – 52.0kg