Business and Policy October 2026 – Sheep

Tight Supply And High Demand Driving Trade 

September has seen the prime lamb trade rise again amid tightened supply, estimated to be 5% down on the 5-year average, coupled with continued high demand. Domestic demand is being largely driven by the southern areas of the UK where throughput is down following prolonged drought, reducing grazing availability, and disease pressure from bluetongue reducing flock numbers. This has boosted prices again into September with an increase of 18.4 p/kg for a R3L carcass and 10.5 p/kg liveweight between the week ending the 29th August 2026 to week ending 19th September 2026, and up by 54.1 p/kg year-on-year and up by 144 p/kg on the 5-year average (Source: IAAS/AHDB), demonstrating a continuation of the strong trade witnessed throughout 2026 for the sheep industry. With processors now looking towards the Christmas kill and some cuts being frozen, demand should remain for the coming weeks.  

Cull ewe numbers are up this month resulting in a steadying in cull ewe price with prices decreasing by around £30.04 on average over the course of the month. However, numbers remain tight on the year (-6%), helping to support historically high prices, with the cull ewe trade up £13.85/head on average compared to this time last year.  

The store trade regained momentum again as we moved through September with average Scottish store lamb price sitting around £100.91 for the week ending the 19th of September (Source: IAAS/QMS). AHDB has reported an average price of around £120/head for GB, with supply through the store ring up by 39% year-on-year. Prices have seen a 22% increase on average. Again, this is predicted to be driven by tight forage supplies and disease pressure forcing many producers to market lamb early rather than finish. Demand for store lambs has seen recovery with ample grass and forage available in the northern part of GB in the back end.  

Breeding Stock Update 

September marks a busy month for the GB sheep trade with breeding sales which will continue into October. Breeding stock sales have showed a strong trade so far with prices, on the whole, up on the year.  

Ram trade has been strong with Kelso kicking off the main multibreed sales with an average of £1,588.20 for 3,632 rams sold. Stirling followed, realising a shearling average of £1485.17 for 1,011 sold. The NSA main ram sale in Builth Wells last week also witnessed a strong trade with an average of £1,161.67 for 2,600 rams sold, up £117.35 year-on-year. Hill sheep sales have kicked off towards the end of the month with both park and hill type North Country Cheviot sales in Lockerbie showing strong averages again, and Blackface sales at the start of their season.  

Gimmer and ewe lamb sales are showing strong trade also with average prices for ewe lambs in around £200-£225 for mule/cross lambs and gimmers around £200 -300/hd, depending on the breed. Most sales report an increase of between £30-£50/hd on the year. Cheviot sales have showed a similar trade, with prices up around £25/hd on the year to average £200 for gimmers. Blackface gimmers are also seeing an increase of between £10-£55 on average to sit between £200-£220/hd for accredited and non-accredited ewes at the recent UA Stirling sale.  

Although positive for those selling breeding stock, care must be taken to maintain margins for both fat stock and for store lamb producers, ensuring stock remain productive and profitable against market fluctuations. Consider on farm resources, input requirements, and performance when decision making where possible.  

Global Trade

Country	Sept 26 Price (p/kg)	Difference to GB
GB (DW)	725.5	0
GB (LW)	329.7	0
Australia (DW)	600	-125.5
New Zealand (DW)	521	-204.5
France (DW)	781	55.5
Republic of Ireland (DW)	660	-65.5
Spain (DW)	934	208.5
United States (LW)	468	138.3

Source: AHDB, QMS, MLA, FW, EU Commission, LMC, USDA  

The table above highlights global lamb trade against current GB trade. EU sheep prices (Spain and France) remain high and demonstrate a greater level of volatility due to contracted supply and remain one of our main export locations with high demand being maintained for GB lamb to the EU. The Irish price continues to more or less track our own, sitting at around 65.5p/kg lower than GB prices but with less of a challenge from low forage availability supporting supply. Australia’s gap in price is starting to lessen against the rest of the world, showing a steady rise during 2026 and widening the gap from New Zealand. This may limit short term growth for Australian imports to GB; however local supply will still be the main driver. 

 

Lorna Shaw; 07796 615719  

Week ending	GB deadweight (p/kg)				Scottish auction (p/kg)				Ewes (£/hd)
	16.5 – 21.5kg								Scottish
	R3L	Change on week	Diff over R2	Diff over R3H	Med.	Change on week	Diff over stan.	Diff over heavy	All
29-Aug-26	707.1	-4.3	-0.8	-0.1	319.20	6.2	10.8	2.2	148.38
05-Sep-26	710.2	3.1	0.3	2.0	314.80	-4.4	6.5	3.3	117.98
12-Sep-26	714.7	4.5	-0.8	-0.4	323.80	9.0	3.8	5.6	119.49
19-Sep-26	725.5	10.8	-0.5	-0.4	329.70	5.9	7.4	5.5	118.34

 

Deadweight prices may be provisional.  Auction price reporting week is slightly different to the deadweight week.                            
Source: AHDB and IAAS Market information

Standard weight 32.1 - 39.0kg; Medium weight 39.1 - 45.5kg; Heavy 45.6 - 52.0kg